A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
